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Sell or Hold Assessment Report

12 Sample Street WARWICK FARM 2170 houses

Report generated on: 26 July 2019

Market data for month ending : August 2018

Introduction

This report assists you investigate the options of holding or selling this property. A forecast of the financial performance of the property over the next few years is assessed and compared with a suitable alternative. The report will provide you with greater insight to help you make a more informed decision to either sell or hold your property.

Executive Summary

Based on the financial information you provided, Sell or Hold’s data analysis would suggest you: seriously consider selling & buying elsewhere in one of the top alternative markets that most suits your strategy and risk profile.

Based on the funds you would have available after the sale of your current property:

  • There are 2957 alternative markets you could afford to buy in from around the country
  • Of these, there are currently 2210 markets that have a higher growth forecast than WARWICK FARM houses
  • And 1010 projected to put you in a better position within 3 years even after considering your your recycling costs.

Assuming you were to sell out of 12 Sample Street houses and buy in the alternative market (Suburb 10 ACT 9010 houses), the recycling costs are likely to be absorbed in 1 years. See the following chart.

Within 3 years your net position is anticipated to be better off by $121,948 if you were to recycle your equity. See the following chart.

PART I : ABOUT THIS REPORT

Terminology

To better equip you in your understanding of this report, the following sections explain terminology used frequently in this report.

Property market

  • A suburb and property type e.g. Newville houses or Newville units
  • Note that the house market could have different supply & demand characteristics to the unit market in the same suburb

Current property

  • The property you currently own that is under examination as the subject of this report

Current property’s market

Alternative market

Alternative markets short-list

Exit costs

  • Expenses related to “exiting” the marketing, that is, selling
  • Typical exit costs include: a selling agent’s commission, capital gains tax, legal fees, etc.

Entry costs

  • Expenses related to entering the marketing, that is, buying
  • Typical entry costs include: stamp duty, legal fees, inspections & reports, etc.

Equity

  • Equity is the difference between the value of a property and the debt against it
  • A $500,000 property with a $400,000 mortgage has $100,000 of equity

Recycling costs

Opportunity costs

  • The difference between the profit from an alternative investment & your current one
  • If your current property grows by $30,000 in the next 3 years and an alternative property grows by $80,000 then you’ll incur an opportunity cost of $50,000 by holding your existing property rather than taking the opportunity of buying the alternative property

The assessment approach

There is an overhead to selling your current property and buying another. These are the recycling costs, the cost to act, by changing where your funds are invested.

But there is also a cost to NOT acting. The possible cost of what you are missing out on.

To make it worthwhile selling and moving your equity elsewhere, a property in an alternative market has to perform much better than your current property would over the following years. In other words, the assessment would need to clearly demonstrate you’d be financially better off by much more than the cost involved in changing properties.

In helping you make your decision, this report estimates the cost of recycling equity and forecasts the opportunity cost. Then the analysis compares these recycling costs to the opportunity costs to see which is larger.

If the recycling costs calculated exceed the opportunity costs, then there is little point selling. If, however, the opportunity costs exceed the recycling costs by a reasonable financial margin, then it may be beneficial going to the trouble of selling and buying again elsewhere.

In simple terms, if you’re going to miss out on a great deal and the change is not expensive, too risky or too stressful for you, then you should seriously consider selling and buying elsewhere. If, on the other hand, the cost to sell and buy elsewhere is significant and you’re not missing out on much financially, then there’d be no point recycling your equity.

Recycling costs are determined using details about your current property, it’s location and your current financial situation.

Estimating opportunity costs requires a forecast of rental growth, property expenses and most importantly, capital growth. This requires some very complicated data analysis, projections and assumptions.

How capital growth is forecast

Capital growth forecasts used in this report are for the short-term, that is, 1 to 5 years. Growth forecasts are made for your current property’s market and the alternative market chosen.

No forecast will ever be 100% accurate or guaranteed, so you need to understand this and factor it into your own final decision-making process.

The growth forecasting used in this report have been based on the market leading Demand to Supply Ratio (DSR). The following sections broadly explain this prediction methodology.

Supply & Demand

All price growth is dictated by the forces of supply and demand. This is a fundamental law of economics that has been around for centuries.

Property is no exception to the law of supply & demand. If demand for property outweighs supply, property prices will rise.

E:FinancePropertyDSR businessBusinessRelationsBen Kingsley - Empower WealthSRPProjectsSell v HoldSupply and Demand - how-it-works-chart.png

Jobs growth, new infrastructure, low interest rates, population growth, changes to lending policy, sentiment, housing construction - all these affect supply and demand.

The growth forecasts appearing in this report are based on measurements of supply and demand for each property market. The algorithm considers many variables in estimating the nature of supply and demand in a property market. Metrics assessed include:

  • Auction clearance ratesAuction clearance rates
    • The % of properties for sale by auction that actually sell during the auction
  • Days on marketDays on market
    • The count of the number of days a property is listed for sale before eventually selling
  • Vendor discountingVendor discounting
    • The % difference between the original asking price and the eventual sale price
  • Proportion of renters to owner-occupiersProportion of renters to owner-occupiers
    • The % of renters in the market as opposed to owner-occupiers and all other resident types
  • Vacancy ratesVacancy rates
    • The % of rental properties currently unoccupied
  • Percentage of stock on marketPercentage of stock on market
    • The % of stock in a property market that is currently listed for sale
  • YieldYield
    • The typical rental incomes (annual gross) as a percentage of typical property values
  • Online search interestOnline search interest
    • The ratio of people searching online for properties versus the number of properties available online
  • Market cycle timingMarket cycle timing
    • A score out of 100 for the likelihood of a property market being at the start of its next surge in price growth
  • Ripple effect potentialRipple effect potential
    • The recent growth of neighbouring markets minus that of the target market indicating potential for growth to ripple.
  • Neighbour price balancingNeighbour price balancing
    • The difference in typical value per km between the property market and its closest neighbours as a weighted average of distance
  • Unit to house value comparisonUnit to house value comparison
    • A score out of 100 for the value of units compared to houses for a unit market or vice-versa for a housing market
  • Long term historical growthLong term historical growth
    • The % growth per annum for the last 10 years
  • Percent of properties listed for sale by auctionPercent of properties listed for sale by auction
    • The % of properties listed for sale by auction as opposed to those listed for sale by other means
  • Percent of properties listed for sale with open inspectionsPercent of properties listed for sale with open inspections
    • The % of properties listed for sale with open inspection dates as opposed to those viewed by appointment only or other means
  • Percent change in sales volumePercent change in sales volume
    • The % of growth in sales volume over the last 12 months
  • Percent change in weekly rental ratesPercent change in weekly rental rates
    • The % of growth in typical rents over the last 12 months

Each of these metrics has a different degree of influence in measuring supply and demand. They are combined in a way to maximise overall capital growth potential.

An extensive amount of historical data has been acquired to derive predictive growth estimates. These cover almost every suburb in Australia for both house and unit markets.

However, not all data can be captured, hence these are forecasts and estimates, not promises or guarantees.

Historical Analysis

In the following chart you can see the correlation between the DSR algorithm and capital growth.


The demand to supply ratio clearly distinguished between outperforming markets (taller bars) and underperforming markets. Markets with a lower DSR (to the left) had lower growth over the next 3 years. Markets with a higher DSR (to the right) had higher growth over the following 3 years.

Hundreds of thousands of historical cases were included in the data shown in the chart.

Confidence / Reliability

Growth forecasts for the report are based on the historical performance of many thousands of markets with a certain DSR. The more historical cases witnessed, the more reliable are the forecasts.

According to the DSR, the majority of markets country-wide are usually in a state where demand and supply are in balance (a DSR close to 50). The following chart highlights this.


The chart shows a range of DSR values along the horizontal axis with the highest DSRs at the right. The height of the bar reflects how many property markets have been in that DSR range.

As you can see, the vast majority of property markets have historically been in a state of supply and demand balance. Such markets offer little upside or downside in terms of growth as the law of supply and demand dictates. Across Australia, we have seen many examples of these markets and witnessed how they have performed over the years to support this logic.

From time to time a market will experience an increase in the level of demand relative to supply (higher DSR). This often represents a period of superior growth before eventually supply and demand return to balance as properties find their new price point.

In some instances, the imbalance between supply and demand becomes extreme. These unique cases are less common and are therefore less predictable. This means there is less confidence in the precise growth forecast for extreme imbalances of supply and demand. These cases are at the edge, they are either very low or very high forecasts. This report will indicate the level of confidence in the predictions based on the number of precedents documented in the past and the variability of those results.

So, what you need to consider is that if the number of precedents is high and the variability of results is low, it means you can have more confidence in the growth forecast and ultimately, the recommendation. Furthermore, the system that generates this report has been built to omit locations where predictions aren’t reliable enough.

How we forecast rental income

In providing a more in-depth analysis, this report needs to consider the rental income you receive for your current property. The report will compare this to the rental income typical of the potential replacement property market.

This report will forecast where rents are heading for your current investment property and any potential replacement market. The report uses a similar technique to how future capital growth is forecast, by looking at supply and demand in the area.

How we forecast expenses

In order to round out the analysis, the assessment process also needs to consider the expenses incurred by your current investment property.

Net return = growth in value + rental income - expenses

Expenses over time are factored in at the rate of inflation.

Alternative markets

Prior to building this report, the software produced a series of short-listed alternative markets. Based on a demand to supply ratio, the program believes these alternative markets have superior forecast performance characteristics compared to your current property’s market.

In selecting these short-listed alternative markets, the program firstly calculated a target price range using:

  • The sale proceeds you would have if you sold
  • Any equity you elected to preserve out of the sale proceeds, i.e. not to go towards buying an alternative property
  • Any extra equity you may have chosen to contribute
  • The new loan to value ratio expected for the alternative property
  • Any borrowing capacity limitations you specified

This means when building the report, Sell or Hold will shortlist alternative markets as directed by you. Depending on the program’s analysis, there may be hundreds of better alternative markets to choose from, only a few, or maybe even none!

With the target price range calculated, the program then scanned the country looking for markets likely to have properties within this price range. It filtered the list further to only show those with superior performance forecasts using the demand to supply ratio.

Finally, the list was sorted by how much better off you’d be in 3 years’ time buying in such markets. If there were more than 100 alternative markets meeting the criteria, the list was limited to include only the best 100.

The Sell or Hold program ranks each alternative market and provides some valuable key metrics for comparison. These metrics helped you to choose the alternative property market which appears alongside your current property’s market in the opportunity cost assessment.

Note: You can generate more reports like this one to compare different alternative markets to the one you have chosen. This means you can choose alternative markets that might be more suitable to your requirements. For example, you can choose a high yielding alternative market if you’re nearing retirement and cash-flow is of greater concern to you than growth.

We recommend you select and explore several alternative markets to help grow your understanding before making any final decision to sell or hold your current property.

Count of alternative markets

There may be many alternative markets that are better than your current property’s market and of similar price. The count of better potential alternative markets is one of the indicators well worth considering when making your overall assessment.

If there are a lot of suitable alternative markets to choose from, then it is more likely your current property’s market is noticeably inferior. This may indicate that your current property’s market might not be a great place to own property right now. A higher number of suitable alternative markets increases the chances of finding a better location to buy a replacement property.

If the opposite was true, it might mean you’ll be better off holding your current property. If there are few suitable alternative markets, it could indicate that your current property’s market has high demand relative to supply right now and may therefore experience good capital growth in the immediate future.

However, it’s also possible that there are very few alternative markets within the target price range. This is often the case when sale proceeds are either very low or very high. A very low or very high sale proceeds figure will target uncommon property markets, reducing the list of suitable alternatives.

Market Timing

Market timing is also a very worthy consideration when making your decision. Not only do property investors want to be financially better off as soon as possible, but how quickly an improvement is achieved is an indication of how much better the alternative market is forecast to be.

By way of example, if it took 10 years for the alternative property market to outperform your current property’s market, then obviously, there was not a significant difference between the two markets to justify selling in the first place.

A significant difference should result in a much quicker recovery of recycling costs.

That said, given the costs involved in selling and buying property, it will take some time for a superior performance to recover recycling costs. Therefore, if the growth forecasts show that recycling costs will take too long to be recovered, you should have more confidence if you decide to hold.

This report, will show a chart of your forecast net position over time. It will also contain charts to show when opportunity costs exceed recycling costs. These charts will illustrate the timeframe of improved net position so you can determine if this is acceptable enough to take the calculated risk to recycle your equity.

PART II : YOUR SCENARIO

This section of the report contains details specific to your circumstance. A financial assessment of your current property is provided along with data for the market it is within. Also, forecasts into the short-term future are provided for growth, rental income and property expenses. Observations about exit costs and your available options are also provided to help you with your decision.

Your Recycling costs

The estimated costs to recycle equity out of your existing property and into a new one consists of:

  • Exit costs of $36,674 which consists of the following key values:
    • Capital Gains Tax estimated at $21,524
    • Selling agent’s commission estimated at $12,500
    • Legal fees estimated at $1,250
  • Entry costs of $23,217 which consists of the following key values:
    • Stamp duty of $20,342
    • Legal fees of $1,250
    • Inspections of $1,375

The total recycling costs are therefore: $59,891. To justify selling and buying elsewhere, this cost needs to be recovered by superior performance of the replacement property in the alternative market within a reasonable number of years.

A detailed breakdown of all your recycling costs follows:

Recycling costs $59,891
           Exit costs $36,674
                     Selling Costs $15,150
                               Selling agent's commission $12,500
                               Legal fees to sell $1,250
                               Marketing costs for selling $500
                               Clean-up $400
                               Staging for sale
                               Other selling costs $500
                     Capital gains tax $21,524
                               Capital gain $118,781
                                         Selling costs $15,150
                                         Cost base $556,069
                                                   Current property original purchase price $550,000
                                                   Stamp duty paid $19,444
                                                   Legal fees to buy current property $975
                                                   Current property's LMI
                                                   Cost base - other $650
                                                   Depreciation $15,000
                               Other capital Gain
                               CGT discount 50%
                               Salary & other income $80,000
           Entry costs $23,217
                     LVR for new purchase 80%
                     Stamp duty to pay $20,342
                     Inspection costs $1,375
                               Building inspection cost $500
                               Pest inspection cost $375
                               Strata report cost
                               Depreciation schedule $500
                               Other inspection costs
                     Legal fees to buy replacement $1,250
                     Buyer's agent fee
                     Other entry costs $250
                     Replacement property target price $762,646
                     Estimated new property expenses as % 1.5%

Your current rental income

The weekly rental income of $500 with a 1.86% vacancy rate would result in annual income of $25,604. This represents a gross rental yield of 3.71%.

Your current holding costs

The cost of mortgage interest per annum was estimated at $20,475. Other expenses you provided came to $6,172. The total of all expenses was therefore $26,647. This represents 3.86% of the property’s value.

A detailed breakdown for all your expenses:

Expenses per annum $26,647
           Mortgage interest per annum $20,475
                     Current property loan size $460,000
                     Mortgage interest rate 4.5%
           Non-interest holding costs $6,172
                     Property management fees $1,972
                               Property management rate 7.7%
                     Property insurance $1,200
                     Council rates $1,100
                     Water rates $1,000
                     Repairs and maintenance $900
                     Strata fees
                     Land tax
                     Other holding costs
                     Non-interest holding costs percentage 0.89%
           Total annual expenses as percentage 3.86%

Replacement property planning

The funds available to buy a replacement property are approximately: $198,326 . If you proceeded to buy another property to replace this one, these funds would be used to pay for the deposit, stamp duty and other entry costs to acquire a replacement property in your selected alternative market.

You can choose to preserve some of these sale proceeds, that is, keep a portion rather than re-invest all of it. However, doing so will reduce the price range of a potential replacement property and may skew the financial analysis in favour of your current property if it is considerably more expensive. A replacement property is unlikely to outperform your current property in total dollar terms if it is only half the price.

Alternatively, you can choose to contribute extra equity to increase the price range of the potential replacement property. However, this may skew the financial analysis an in favour of the replacement property if it is significantly more expensive than your current property.

Sometimes, it might make good financial sense to preserve some of the sale proceeds if the sale proceeds are very large, e.g. hundreds of thousand of dollars. Similarly, it might make good financial sense to contribute extra equity if the sale proceeds are very small, like less than $100,000.

We recommend adjusting the equity to preserve or to contribute so that the target price range of the alternative market is not too dissimilar to the value of your current property. This makes the comparison between the alternative market and your current one like-for-like. Running different scenarios may clarify this concept and uncover additional options for you to consider.

Re-entry costs

Stamp duty and other entry costs would approximately total $23,217.

Alternative markets

The following markets are the top alternative markets identified by Sell or Hold from around the country that have median prices within range of the target price for the possible replacement property.

RankRank State Post code Suburb Prop. Type MedianMedian DSR+DSR+ Stat. rel.Stat. rel. YieldYield Historical casesHistorical cases Spare fundsSpare funds 3 years better off by3 years better off by ROEROE
1 ACT 9001 Suburb 1 Houses $826,918 74 86 4.03% 11 $1,339 $146,340 166%
2 ACT 9002 Suburb 2 Houses $772,001 71 85 4.07% 68 $15,672 $134,300 167%
3 ACT 9003 Suburb 3 Houses $806,892 74 91 3.89% 11 $2,158 $132,839 163%
4 ACT 9004 Suburb 4 Houses $819,038 66 78 4.41% 586 $3,397 $131,709 158%
5 ACT 9005 Suburb 5 Houses $753,310 73 87 4.31% 21 $20,551 $130,310 168%
6 ACT 9006 Suburb 6 Houses $803,333 66 85 4.54% 586 $3,027 $126,667 160%
7 ACT 9007 Suburb 7 Houses $768,936 69 88 4.56% 196 $11,595 $124,123 164%
8 ACT 9008 Suburb 8 Houses $746,508 74 91 4.14% 11 $16,779 $123,934 169%
9 ACT 9009 Suburb 9 Houses $663,635 78 88 4.5% 0 $42,628 $122,052 182%
10 ACT 9010 Suburb 10 Houses $669,058 80 87 4.32% 1 $41,297 $121,948 180%
11 ACT 9011 Suburb 11 Houses $726,014 76 89 3.98% 3 $27,307 $119,460 166%
12 ACT 9012 Suburb 12 Houses $778,013 75 79 3.76% 3 $9,061 $119,164 160%
13 ACT 9013 Suburb 13 Houses $827,332 66 84 3.87% 586 $1,232 $118,683 149%
14 ACT 9014 Suburb 14 Houses $762,840 71 90 3.74% 68 $13,089 $118,088 162%
15 ACT 9015 Suburb 15 Houses $743,425 84 87 3.66% 0 $5,826 $117,281 173%
16 ACT 9016 Suburb 16 Houses $768,234 73 88 3.66% 21 $16,657 $117,049 157%
17 ACT 9017 Suburb 17 Houses $698,781 71 87 4.03% 68 $33,999 $115,212 169%
18 ACT 9018 Suburb 18 Houses $722,214 74 87 3.75% 11 $28,240 $114,479 163%
19 ACT 9019 Suburb 19 Units $804,587 71 87 4.16% 49 $2,553 $114,230 152%
20 ACT 9020 Suburb 20 Houses $771,199 65 89 4.68% 894 $11,008 $113,298 157%
21 ACT 9021 Suburb 21 Houses $638,509 78 84 4.4% 0 $48,798 $112,975 181%
22 ACT 9022 Suburb 22 Houses $527,908 60 85 9.62% 3110 $70,336 $111,668 218%
23 ACT 9023 Suburb 23 Houses $740,070 67 81 4.18% 416 $18,359 $111,012 161%
24 ACT 9024 Suburb 24 Houses $622,691 69 87 5.64% 196 $47,917 $110,751 187%
25 ACT 9025 Suburb 25 Houses $717,632 67 89 4.1% 416 $29,366 $109,939 161%
26 ACT 9026 Suburb 26 Houses $748,577 64 80 4.88% 1155 $16,655 $109,497 159%
27 ACT 9027 Suburb 27 Houses $811,525 66 88 3.83% 586 $985 $109,461 148%
28 ACT 9028 Suburb 28 Houses $815,515 69 88 3.59% 196 $7 $109,088 147%
29 ACT 9029 Suburb 29 Houses $667,207 71 84 4.04% 68 $41,750 $107,474 170%
30 ACT 9030 Suburb 30 Houses $746,750 66 90 4.07% 586 $22,216 $107,382 154%
31 ACT 9031 Suburb 31 Houses $800,240 66 81 3.83% 586 $3,616 $106,850 148%
32 ACT 9032 Suburb 32 Houses $617,580 56 62 9.93% 6001 $48,370 $106,811 186%
33 ACT 9033 Suburb 33 Houses $656,044 72 84 4.76% 34 $38,945 $106,666 176%
34 ACT 9034 Suburb 34 Houses $536,818 88 87 4.84% 0 $73,774 $106,062 204%
35 ACT 9035 Suburb 35 Houses $655,125 74 87 4.1% 11 $44,718 $105,905 171%
36 ACT 9036 Suburb 36 Houses $668,495 73 87 4.42% 21 $36,556 $105,774 172%
37 ACT 9037 Suburb 37 Houses $760,701 67 88 3.75% 416 $13,302 $105,086 154%
38 ACT 9038 Suburb 38 Houses $773,469 62 80 5.2% 1975 $10,451 $104,570 151%
39 ACT 9039 Suburb 39 Houses $760,413 70 89 3.53% 136 $13,373 $103,821 153%
40 ACT 9040 Suburb 40 Houses $577,366 79 90 4.63% 0 $63,817 $103,712 189%
41 ACT 9041 Suburb 41 Houses $782,082 66 87 3.86% 586 $8,067 $103,673 149%
42 ACT 9042 Suburb 42 Houses $740,920 67 89 3.87% 416 $18,149 $103,563 156%
43 ACT 9043 Suburb 43 Houses $615,774 75 88 4.54% 3 $54,385 $102,694 178%
44 ACT 9044 Suburb 44 Houses $810,982 72 89 3.09% 34 $1,121 $102,654 144%
45 ACT 9045 Suburb 45 Houses $682,056 69 90 4.55% 196 $33,161 $102,591 167%
46 ACT 9046 Suburb 46 Houses $761,193 70 91 3.43% 136 $13,494 $101,806 151%
47 ACT 9047 Suburb 47 Houses $805,232 67 87 3.24% 416 $2,562 $101,705 144%
48 ACT 9048 Suburb 48 Houses $786,327 64 91 4.23% 1155 $7,264 $101,373 147%
49 ACT 9049 Suburb 49 Houses $589,991 77 90 4.62% 0 $60,718 $101,358 184%
50 ACT 9050 Suburb 50 Houses $581,896 76 87 4.87% 3 $62,706 $101,097 186%
51 ACT 9051 Suburb 51 Houses $797,240 65 84 3.98% 894 $4,556 $100,839 145%
52 ACT 9052 Suburb 52 Houses $753,045 67 89 3.64% 416 $15,179 $100,588 152%
53 ACT 9053 Suburb 53 Houses $755,129 68 82 3.66% 312 $20,077 $98,775 147%
54 ACT 9054 Suburb 54 Houses $549,184 81 90 4.68% 0 $70,740 $98,636 193%
55 ACT 9055 Suburb 55 Houses $690,227 73 87 3.88% 21 $30,728 $98,286 162%
56 ACT 9056 Suburb 56 Houses $599,811 73 88 4.61% 21 $58,302 $97,450 178%
57 ACT 9057 Suburb 57 Houses $682,425 70 92 3.98% 136 $33,070 $97,174 163%
58 ACT 9058 Suburb 58 Houses $695,096 70 91 3.85% 136 $29,933 $97,166 160%
59 ACT 9059 Suburb 59 Houses $619,778 67 85 4.84% 416 $48,665 $96,562 176%
60 ACT 9060 Suburb 60 Houses $736,156 65 83 4.08% 894 $24,818 $96,401 148%
61 ACT 9061 Suburb 61 Houses $593,516 72 85 4.76% 34 $59,849 $96,398 179%
62 ACT 9062 Suburb 62 Houses $509,125 84 86 4.92% 0 $80,575 $96,267 204%
63 ACT 9063 Suburb 63 Units $764,234 71 90 3.81% 49 $12,438 $96,153 147%
64 ACT 9064 Suburb 64 Houses $619,989 73 84 4.26% 21 $53,350 $95,486 171%
65 ACT 9065 Suburb 65 Houses $564,972 74 88 4.75% 11 $66,862 $95,311 186%
66 ACT 9066 Suburb 66 Houses $695,431 71 91 3.45% 68 $29,848 $95,251 159%
67 ACT 9067 Suburb 67 Houses $813,691 69 89 3.09% 196 $457 $95,107 139%
68 ACT 9068 Suburb 68 Houses $660,211 66 86 4.62% 586 $38,581 $94,402 165%
69 ACT 9069 Suburb 69 Houses $606,419 71 87 4.09% 68 $56,680 $93,153 173%
70 ACT 9070 Suburb 70 Houses $720,621 70 84 3.99% 136 $11,805 $93,087 161%
71 ACT 9071 Suburb 71 Houses $697,876 68 87 4.17% 312 $29,251 $92,958 156%
72 ACT 9072 Suburb 72 Houses $611,679 72 87 4.35% 34 $55,391 $92,816 171%
73 ACT 9073 Suburb 73 Houses $583,742 75 85 4.47% 3 $62,250 $92,813 178%
74 ACT 9074 Suburb 74 Houses $812,918 68 87 3.2% 312 $643 $92,609 138%
75 ACT 9075 Suburb 75 Houses $751,394 66 84 3.66% 586 $15,930 $92,353 147%
76 ACT 9076 Suburb 76 Houses $633,841 72 87 4.06% 34 $49,946 $92,232 165%
77 ACT 9077 Suburb 77 Units $732,806 77 92 4.25% 1 $7,923 $92,077 158%
78 ACT 9078 Suburb 78 Houses $654,019 67 93 4.18% 416 $40,134 $91,029 164%
79 ACT 9079 Suburb 79 Units $689,722 77 88 4.03% 1 $30,692 $90,637 157%
80 ACT 9080 Suburb 80 Houses $711,525 69 85 3.79% 196 $24,838 $90,597 153%
81 ACT 9081 Suburb 81 Houses $738,069 67 91 3.35% 416 $19,264 $90,582 148%
82 ACT 9082 Suburb 82 Houses $626,930 69 85 4.36% 196 $51,643 $90,556 166%
83 ACT 9083 Suburb 83 Houses $799,454 63 87 4.01% 1541 $4,014 $89,767 138%
84 ACT 9084 Suburb 84 Houses $715,032 67 90 3.51% 416 $24,976 $89,552 151%
85 ACT 9085 Suburb 85 Houses $504,050 81 90 4.9% 0 $81,823 $89,275 199%
86 ACT 9086 Suburb 86 Houses $616,224 77 84 3.97% 0 $48,674 $88,715 171%
87 ACT 9087 Suburb 87 Houses $560,517 76 88 4.52% 3 $67,953 $88,541 181%
88 ACT 9088 Suburb 88 Houses $670,807 67 90 3.88% 416 $35,950 $88,296 158%
89 ACT 9089 Suburb 89 Houses $579,341 73 85 4.41% 21 $63,331 $88,157 175%
90 ACT 9090 Suburb 90 Houses $533,817 74 85 4.82% 11 $74,511 $87,954 188%
91 ACT 9091 Suburb 91 Houses $565,681 76 87 4.38% 3 $66,688 $87,255 178%
92 ACT 9092 Suburb 92 Houses $576,483 67 91 4.94% 416 $59,413 $87,239 179%
93 ACT 9093 Suburb 93 Houses $667,871 68 85 3.95% 312 $41,590 $86,854 154%
94 ACT 9094 Suburb 94 Houses $522,963 73 89 5.14% 21 $77,179 $86,487 190%
95 ACT 9095 Suburb 95 Houses $622,232 67 87 4.3% 416 $48,027 $85,967 167%
96 ACT 9096 Suburb 96 Houses $728,624 67 88 3.24% 416 $21,611 $85,930 146%
97 ACT 9097 Suburb 97 Houses $641,715 73 85 3.79% 21 $43,183 $85,341 162%
98 ACT 9098 Suburb 98 Houses $639,690 65 82 4.53% 894 $48,512 $85,325 159%
99 ACT 9099 Suburb 99 Houses $587,756 69 89 4.57% 196 $61,265 $85,222 171%
100 ACT 9100 Suburb 100 Houses $668,622 67 84 4.36% 416 $24,761 $85,179 165%

Please note: These alternative markets are subject to change as new data is analysed each month. As such, prices may have moved in the time it takes for you to sell your current investment property and the time you’re ready to buy a replacement property. Please take this into consideration.

In the analysis which follows, this Sell or Hold assessment compares your current investment property and its market against your selected alternative market of Suburb 10 ACT 9010 houses which is ranked 10 in the list above.

Comparison indicators

The key indicator of immediate capital growth potential is the ratio of demand to supply (DSR). The following chart places the DSR+ of your current investment property’s market in context with the alternative and all markets Australia-wide.


The following median prices chart may also be of interest. It shows the recent change in medians for your current investment market and the one chosen for comparison.


To see whether selling and buying elsewhere would be financially beneficial, this report has compared your current property market against the chosen alternative property market. The following table shows a comprehensive numerical comparison of the two markets using key supply and demand metrics.

Indicator name Current Alternative
Avg vendor discount 1.08% 1.74%
Demand to supply ratio+ 46 80
Long term growth 10.14% 3.87%
Market cycle timing 21 64
Neighbour price balancing 35,386$/km 25,541$/km
Online search interest 57 54
Percent renters in market 70.6% 21.5%
Percentage rent growth 7.91% 3.95%
Ripple effect potential -10.55% 7.51%
Percentage sales growth 0% 1.9%
Statistical reliability+ 71 87
Typical value $706,710 $669,058
Unit to house value 21 45
Vacancy rate 1.22% 0.59%
Gross rental yield 3.34% 4.32%

Growth forecasts

Based on the history of growth experienced by markets with the same supply and demand characteristics, Sell or Hold data analytics forecasts the capital growth over the next few years for both your current property’s market and the chosen alternative market.


The chart shows two shaded sections. One section represents forecasts for the chosen alternative market. The other section represents forecasts for your current investment property’s market.

The upper bound of each shaded section is the optimistic growth forecast for that market. The lower bound is the pessimistic growth forecast. The area between the upper and lower bounds of the same shaded section is called the confidence interval.

The chart shows an 80% confidence interval for both markets. This means that 80% of all historical cases of markets with this demand to supply ratio had growth profile fitting somewhere between the upper and lower bounds of the shaded region.

If the confidence interval for the comparison market is comfortably above the confidence interval for the market of your current investment property, then there is a good chance the alternative market will outperform your current investment’s market. If, however, a significant portion of the confidence intervals overlap, then it is less likely that one will outperform the other.

The data for the prior chart has been tabulated following so you can see precise values. The upper bound is called “optimistic”, the lower bound is called “pessimistic”.

Year Alternative Pessimistic Alternative Optimistic Current Pessimistic Current Optimistic
2018 $0 $0 $0 $0
2019 $48,574 $143,178 -$21,735 $43,953
2020 $102,633 $230,022 -$12,075 $80,247
2021 $150,939 $332,656 -$690 $123,372
2022 $191,618 $427,929 $13,938 $181,056
2023 $233,100 $543,944 $23,667 $235,359

Rent forecasts

Similar to the capital Growth forecasts, rent increases are also forecast. The following chart shows the forecast increases in rental income for both the comparison market and your current investment property.


One section represents forecasts for the comparison market. The other section represents forecasts for your current investment property.

The upper bound of each shaded section is the optimistic rent growth forecast. The lower bound is the pessimistic rent forecast. The area between the upper and lower bounds is the confidence interval.

The chart shows 80% confidence intervals. You can expect rent to grow somewhere within this interval for the majority of property markets having similar supply and demand characteristics.

The data for the prior chart has been tabulated following so you can see precise values. The upper bound is called “optimistic”, the lower bound is called “pessimistic”.

Year Alternative Pessimistic Alternative Optimistic Current Pessimistic Current Optimistic
2018 $0 $0 $0 $0
2019 $29,953 $31,996 $25,196 $26,414
2020 $61,073 $65,868 $50,571 $53,502
2021 $93,237 $101,957 $76,157 $81,390
2022 $126,279 $140,104 $102,015 $110,348
2023 $160,217 $180,756 $128,053 $140,313

Expense forecasts

The following forecasts for property expenses are based on the estimated inflation rate of 2.5% and a variability margin.


One section represents forecasts for the comparison market. The other section represents forecasts for your current investment property.

The upper bound of each shaded section is the pessimistic expense growth forecast. Remember that we want expenses to be as low as possible. The lower bound is the optimistic expense forecast. The area between the upper and lower bounds is the confidence interval where most expense growth would track.

The data for the prior chart has been tabulated following so you can see precise values. The upper bound is called “optimistic”, the lower bound is called “pessimistic”.

Year Alternative Pessimistic Alternative Optimistic Current Pessimistic Current Optimistic
2018 $0 $0 $0 $0
2019 $34,572 $30,458 $28,066 $25,536
2020 $69,453 $61,121 $56,322 $51,198
2021 $104,651 $91,995 $84,773 $76,991
2022 $140,172 $123,086 $113,424 $102,916
2023 $176,026 $154,398 $142,279 $128,977

Net return forecasts

The following chart shows the net return forecast for your current investment property and the alternative market. The net return forecast adds rental income forecasts to the growth forecasts and subtracts expense forecasts.


The chart also incorporates the recycling costs. Note that the comparison market starts off in a negative net position because of these recycling costs.

To increase your understanding here, the ideal case for a logical “sell” consideration is when the lower bound of the alternative market is higher than the upper bound of your current investment property’s market with the biggest gap between them and within the shortest possible timeframe.

The ideal case for a logical “hold” consideration is when the upper bound of the alternative market is lower than the lower bound of your current investment property’s market for every year on the chart and by a large gap.

Year Alternative Pessimistic Alternative Optimistic Current Pessimistic Current Optimistic
2018 -$59,891 -$59,891 $0 $0
2019 -$15,936 $84,825 -$24,605 $44,831
2020 $34,362 $174,878 -$17,826 $82,551
2021 $79,634 $282,727 -$9,306 $127,771
2022 $117,834 $385,056 $2,529 $188,488
2023 $157,400 $510,411 $9,441 $246,695

Observations

There are enough alternative markets to choose from (1,010) that may place you in a better financial position to suggest replacing your existing property. There should be at least 40 alternatives that could put you in a better financial position within 3 years. If there are less than 20 alternative markets, there is a good reason to hold. A count between 20 and 40 is unclear.

The forecast amount by which you may be better off financially after 3 years is compared with the recycling costs. This value needs to be at least 60% of the recycling costs to make the risk of recycling equity worthwhile. In your case it was 204%, it is large enough to suggest recycling. For amounts lower than 40% there is an argument to hold. For amounts between 40% and 60% it is unsure.

The forecast amount by which you may be better off financially after 3 years is 18% of the potential replacement market's median. This is large enough to suggest recycling equity. A minimum of 10% is needed. Anything less than 6% is a strong argument to hold. Anything in-between 6% and 10% is uncertain.

The demand to supply ratio of the potential replacement market of 80 is large enough compared to your current property's market score of 46, to suggest recycling your equity. The replacement market's demand to supply ratio should be more than 5 points higher than that of your current market to trigger thoughts of selling. In the case where the potential replacement market is within 5 points of your current market, it is not clear whether to recycle equity or hold.

The forecast amount by which you may be better off financially after 3 years is $121,948 which is considered significant enough to make the effort worth the risk. Your position needs to be better off by at least $60,000 to suggest recycling. Amounts between $30,000 and $60,000 are considered uncertain.

The difference in the forecast net position after 3 years for your current property and the potential replacement property market is significant enough to suggest recycling of equity. To confidently recommend a recycling of equity the most pessimistic forecast of the potential replacement property market should exceed the most optimistic forecast of your current property. It would be unclear what to recommend if the realistic forecasts of both markets were close. A hold could be confidently recommended if the realistic forecast for the current property market exceeded the optimistic forecast of the potential replacement market.

Based on the financial information you provided, Sell or Hold’s data analysis would suggest you: seriously consider selling & buying elsewhere in one of the top alternative markets that most suits your strategy and risk profile.

Based on the funds you would have available after the sale of your current property:

  • There are 2957 alternative markets you could afford to buy in from around the country.
  • Of these, there are currently 2210 markets that have a higher growth forecast than WARWICK FARM houses
  • And 1010 projected to put you in a better position 3 years even after considering your your recycling costs.

Assuming you were to sell out of WARWICK FARM houses and buy in the alternative market ( Suburb 10 ACT 9010 houses ), the recycling costs are likely to be absorbed in 1 years. See the following chart.

Within 3 years your net position is anticipated to be better off by $121,948 if you were to recycle your equity. See the following chart.

PART III : FURTHER RESEARCH

Next steps checklist

The financial analysis and observations to this point have been machine driven and backed by big data. To round out your full assessment, here are some further important steps worth undertaking as part of your confirming research:

  1. Check price ranges in the list of Alternative markets
    1. Dismiss an alternative market if there are too few properties within the target price range. Thinly traded markets usually have unreliable data and you may not be able to buy a property if none are for sale.
  2. Check the local council website for future property supply risks for both your current property’s market and the alternative
    1. If there are too many new properties about to come onto the market for sale in your current property’s location, this lends more weight to the argument of selling since growth is negated with additional supply
    2. Dismiss an alternative market if there are too many new properties about to come onto the market for sale
    3. Dismiss an alternative market if there are plans by council to negatively alter this market e.g. by allocating nearby land to the city’s new dump
  3. Check satellite imagery for vacant land that could be filled
    1. Dismiss an alternative market if there is too much vacant land nearby that could be developed bringing in new supply to the market
  4. Contact agents for info on market conditions
    1. Dismiss an alternative market if the agents can’t provide any good news about the market
  5. You could also contact a professional if you need help with finance, strategy, research, negotiation or buying. Given the current lending marketplace, it’s best to have your finance in place before you do anything, including selling.
  6. If on balance you believe you are best served to “hold” for now, be aware that markets do change. You may want to re-generate a new report from time to time to stay abreast of changes in supply and demand of property in your market. It might not be the right time to sell now, but that time might come in the future. (An extra fee may apply to generate a new report using new data).

Resources

The following might help you finish off your research:

Select Residential Property Group has other online research platforms including:

Other useful websites include:

Professional advisors:

  • Qualified Property Investment Advisors (QPIA’s): They are formally educated via the peak property investment association – www.Pipa.asn.au
  • Mortgage Brokers: They are licensed credit advisors who can assess your borrowing options in regards to the ‘if you sold option’, advising you on your borrowing power and choice of lender options for your circumstances
  • Buyers Agents: They are licensed real estate agents who can help investigate and secure a replacement property in one of the alternative market locations. Working for you, they can undertake the field research to identify a suitable property and negotiate the purchase on your behalf.
  • Financial Planners: These licensed professionals can assist with exploring your overall investment and retirement planning needs. They may help you assess the impact of selling in terms of your retirement nest egg plans.

PART IV : WARNINGS

Assumptions

  • In making the observations the Sell or Hold program is relying on machine driven outputs based on programmed algorithms that reply on the accuracy of the data collected and also the accuracy of the information input by the user. Incorrect information will impact the observations and results in this report.
  • Sell or Hold reports are largely governed by manually entered data. Although checks and warnings can limit the potential for invalid data entry, they can’t eradicate it entirely. The program assumes entered data to be correct.
  • Outside of the financial information you have provided within this report, the program doesn’t know your personal financial circumstances or immediate goals. For example, you may be nearing retirement and you’d prefer a high yielding property at the expense of capital growth. The program’s approach considers overall return without favouring cash-flow.
  • The program doesn’t know if you’ll be able to obtain a mortgage to purchase the replacement property. Your financial position may have changed since your current property was purchased. Lending policies may have changed too. You should consult with a mortgage broker to obtain an indication of borrowing capacity before taking any action.
  • Your strategy may be to “set and forget”. That is, you may not want to be an active investor trying to maximise returns. Instead, you may prefer simplicity rather than superior returns.
  • The program can’t predict earthquakes, bush fires, floods, civil wars, interest rate rises, economic collapse, government policy changes, etc. All investment comes with some degree of risk which you must bear.
  • The program doesn’t know if there are manufactured equity opportunities with your current property, for example: renovation, subdivision or development.These may be available with one property and not with another and as such have not been taken into consideration for any.
  • The program doesn’t know if your current property will have a more “suitable” post-tax depreciation schedule for your personal circumstances than the replacement property would.
  • The program assumes you’ll pick a suitable property within one of the alternative locations. It doesn’t know the level of your investment experience, research ability or skills with negotiating.
  • The program assumes you’ll conduct further research into any alternative market before choosing to buy there, including fundamental research about the location
  • The program assumes you’ll obtain building and pest inspections or strata reports as well as get a fair and independent valuation before buying a replacement property
  • The program assumes your current property and the replacement property will not be peculiar to the suburb. For example, the metrics we use for our determination might be based on a 3-bedroom house on 550 square metres typically selling in your current property’s suburb. But if your property is a 7-bedroom house on 1,000 square metres, the comparison may be inaccurate.

Risks of Investing in Property

Investing carries risk and you need to acknowledge that risk is a part of any investing you do. When you invest you are at risk of losing some, all, and even more than the original capital you invest. Therefore, managing risk is a key consideration in your property investment plan.

Some key risk elements to consider:

General Investment Risk: As with pretty much anything you do in life, it carries a level of risk. Crossing the road, driving a car, investing, playing sport etc. When it comes to money management and planning, you must always look at the risks involved and assess the possible outcome of such risks before any action is taken.

It’s important to note that all areas of money management and wealth building carry a level of risk. Usually the higher levels of risk provide the higher levels of returns, but the greatest risk is losing some or possibly all of your money.

The counter argument to this is taking no risk, which could be argued as a sure way of not being able to obtain greater wealth for oneself because your money was so well protected in low risk activities that it was not able to compound or grow into a significant amount. When investing, you should ensure your costs of holding that investment includes minimisation of any risks present.

Personal Risk: You are the most valuable asset in your life, as it is you who has the capacity to generate income through allocation of your time. You might be self-employed and allocate your time to provide income through profits or you might be PAYG earning income for the allocation of your time with an employer.

Your capacity to earn income over a long period of time is the most important reason you should ensure you are protected as best you can to insure yourself against any life events, such as illness, that may stop or limit your capacity to earn more income. Once again you should ensure when calculating your household expenditure that the adults within the household have adequate personal insurance cover before undertaking any investment activities that rely on your future income.

Market Risk: Market risk is sometimes also called ‘systemic’ risk because it is ‘risk that is in the ‘system’. It is this market risk that causes asset prices to rise and fall according to the prices that buyers and sellers are willing to agree to in the current market.

What will happen to your property value through a whole economic cycle, rising interest rates, rising unemployment, or changes to government policies/laws relating to your investment property? Property prices don’t always go up!

Development Risk: Will the builder do what is expected/required? Is the building fit for purpose? and built to Australian specifications? How will the body corporate function?

Management Risk: As a landlord you can choose to self-manage your property which will greatly increase the risks of you not complying with all the rules and regulations around tenancy agreements and rights. Or you can outsource to a licensed estate agent to manage your property on your behalf.

You also need to be mindful there could be a risk in engaging a poor professional property manager and this may impact on your property and overall property investment experience.

Legislation Risk: Will your property/suburb, or investors in general, be affected by adverse decisions by any level of government such as zoning, access, services, taxes, regulations?

There may be a lot of pressure on housing affordability influencing government and regulators like APRA, ASIC, etc. to change laws concerning: negative gearing, lending requirements, capital gains, etc. Any such change has the potential to impact on your investment returns.

Liquidity Risk: In the event cashflow pressures cause the need to sell, is there ongoing demand for your property, is it saleable should the need arise? Property inherently isn’t a liquid asset like say a share is, where it can be sold quickly and you can receive your cash. Selling property will take time, otherwise a superfast transaction could result in you accepting a lower price for your property.

Gearing Risk: Property is traditionally a lower volatility asset unless you buy in mining towns or areas where economic boom and busts are common. As part of your plan you may be taking on higher levels of debt. You need to be comfortable with this approach from a mindset as well as a cashflow planning position.

Value Risk: Are you purchasing the property at market price? Do you understand the intrinsic and extrinsic growth drivers in the area over the medium to long term? As with market risk, we need to be reminded that property prices don’t always go up, so if prices fall and you hold debt against a property as well, the risks of a poor return on the investment increase in the short or potentially longer term.

Tenant Risk: What if the tenant causes damage to the property, or fails to pay the rent? Tenants are unlikely to care as much about your property as you will. Some tenants are more caring than others. Picking the right tenant for your property is critical and requires thorough investigating of who they are and their behaviour, hence we recommend you use a professional property manager. But you still need to be mindful of the risks.

Event Risk: Is the property in a flood or bushfire prone area, at risk of termite damage, volatile soils, or built on an old mine?

Volatility Risk: Is the property subject to big price/value movements, changing market corrections, or business conditions? We highlighted earlier that long term historical data clearly shows that residential property has very little volatility, unless you buy in a risky location. You need to make sure you have adequate time to either ride out the cycle or you purchase in a low volatility market?

Investor Risk: Sometimes the greatest risk is you. Are you, the investor, a suitable person to invest in property? Are you educated and knowledgeable? Can you manage cashflow? Do you have the discipline to adhere to a written plan over months, years or decades? Do you have the right mindset and drive to make this plan a reality, even when an unforeseen event might occur? This is your plan, ultimately you need to be sure it is what you want to do before you proceed.

Disclaimer

Limitation of warranty

To the full extent permitted by law, “Sell or Hold” excludes all warranties, whether express or implied, including any warranties or representations concerning availability of the Website, quality, completeness, accuracy, suitability, acceptability or fitness for purpose in relation to the Website, the Content, the conduct of any users, all links to or from the Website and the goods and services listed or accessible on the Website.

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Subject to the consumer guarantees provided for in consumer protection legislation (including the Australian Consumer Law) “Sell or Hold” excludes all liability for any loss, damage, claim, cost or expense whatsoever arising out of or in connection with these Terms, the Website, the Content, all links to or from the Website.

Owner’s decision

Each assessment report provides observational insights and assessments to help the report owner with greater knowledge and understanding of the potential to sell or hold a property they own, without making a final recommendation. This final decision to either sell or hold rests with the report owner and so does the risk and full liability for them making any selling or future purchasing decision based on any reports they have produced via Sell or Hold.

Sell or Hold predictions

Sell or Hold provides predictions of future capital growth and future rental yield forecasts for property locations within Australia. Sell or Hold predictions are based on a range of data sources which are subject to availability at the time.

Sell or Hold predictions are a data and machine-driven guide of the growth and yield forecasts for specific locations (by house or unit type) across Australia. They are not forecast for every individual property in Australia and cannot be guaranteed to materialise exactly as stated. Hence, they are forecast predictions only.